As the holiday season continues, many shoppers are still on the lookout for the best deals. This year, Americans made a significant mark on Black Friday, spending a staggering $11.8 billion online, alongside an additional $6.4 billion spent on Thanksgiving Day, as reported by the Associated Press. While foot traffic in physical stores increased compared to the previous week, the trend has shifted heavily towards online shopping in recent years. A noteworthy aspect of this story is the implication in the headline, which suggests that these record sales occurred “despite wider economic uncertainty.”
However, it seems more accurate to say they happened “because” of that uncertainty.
With inflation hovering around 3% annually, fluctuating prices influenced by unpredictable tariff policies, and an unstable job market that feels more precarious than it has since the pandemic, how have American consumers responded? I can share firsthand experience, as I have been part of this trend myself.
What many of us have been doing is waiting for the best deals, particularly for non-essential purchases. I began this waiting game in early October, right after Amazon’s Big Prime Deal Days sale. While essentials like groceries are typically not included, I focused on electronics, household goods, and other non-perishable items. I kept a mental list of desired purchases and refrained from buying until the “early Black Friday deals” started appearing. Unless you’re affluent, chances are you did the same.
The significant spikes in sales during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and similar events are not indicators of a thriving economy. Rather, they reflect a heightened level of financial vigilance among consumers, who are more inclined to wait for discounted prices instead of paying full retail price. This personal uncertainty is echoed by the hesitations seen among retailers as well.
It’s evident that the frequency of major sales events has increased in recent years. Retailers traditionally aim to sell products year-round, but given the unpredictable nature of prices and incomes, they are motivated to clear inventory and ensure cash flow as quickly as possible.
This trend likely explains the expanding scope of Black Friday. While it once exclusively occupied a single Friday, we now have Cyber Monday, “early Black Friday deals,” and this year, even Black Friday Week. In a few years, the pre-holiday sales period may very well be referred to simply as “November.”
Consumers are actively searching for exceptional deals for two primary reasons: first, the uncertainty of the future looms large, and second, there is a prevailing belief that tomorrow may not be as favorable as today. We have experienced more optimistic and stable times, but we currently find ourselves in a different reality.
This situation is not solely attributable to one political figure. While the presidency may reflect a culmination of significant government debt and erratic fiscal policies, these issues predate the current administration. They have simply been exacerbated.
As we approach the final days of holiday shopping, I wish you success in finding what you seek. May you not feel compelled to monitor your bank account as closely next year. Wishing everyone joyful holidays.
Thomas L. Knapp serves as the director and senior news analyst at the William Lloyd Garrison Center for Libertarian Advocacy Journalism.
