The Academy Awards are set to take place later than usual this year due to the Winter Olympics, creating an unprecedented level of suspense surrounding the major categories. While a comprehensive forecast for the top awards will be included in our print issue, our website will also feature insights into the mid-major categories, highlighting the best craft work of 2025. As always, any incorrect predictions will entitle you to a full refund of the newsstand price.
Best Picture
The pivotal question is whether “Sinners” has had enough time to surpass “One Battle After Another.” My inclination is that it has not. The real-life murders of Renée Nicole Good and Alex Pretti are likely to favor the film in which the antagonist commands ICE agents against the protagonists. While Paul Thomas Anderson’s thriller could claim the award on its own merit, the temptation to award it as a statement against figures at the Department of Homeland Security might be overwhelming. For a detailed look at my Top 10 list, which showcases films I consider worthy of this honor, you can refer there. Unfortunately, “No Other Choice” seems to have been overshadowed by its distributor, Neon Releasing, which had a plethora of titles to promote this awards season.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet has now been part of eight Best Picture Oscar nominees, matching the career totals of legends like Henry Fonda, Gregory Peck, and Audrey Hepburn before his 30th birthday. Despite the fact that he has emerged during a time with more than five Best Picture nominees, this achievement is still remarkable. The question remains: will this be enough to secure him the statuette for “Marty Supreme”? Furthermore, will the historical trend favoring younger Best Actress winners impact this race? Could the older generation hold out for Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another”? Or might the competition become fragmented enough to allow Michael B. Jordan from “Sinners” or Ethan Hawke from “Blue Moon” to take the award? This race remains too close to call.
Best Actress
Unlike the Best Actor category, the Best Actress award seems to be firmly in Jessie Buckley’s grasp for her role in “Hamnet.” I have no objections to this outcome, although I would hate to see “Sentimental Value” leave empty-handed, especially given Renate Reinsve’s outstanding performance. However, there is a significant issue regarding Amanda Seyfried’s snub for “The Testament of Ann Lee” and Tessa Thompson for “Hedda,” both of which were omitted from the nominations entirely. It’s perplexing that Kate Hudson received a nomination instead.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicting the Best Supporting Actor category proves challenging. Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn delivered exceptional performances in “One Battle After Another,” but seasoned actors like Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value” and Delroy Lindo in “Sinners” could also emerge victorious. If it comes down to a face-off between Del Toro and Penn, the former might have the upper hand, given the potential for an incendiary acceptance speech from Penn. The variables at play make this category particularly unpredictable.
Best Supporting Actress
Historically, Black actresses have won this category nine times in the past two decades, with no repeat winners, a statistic that, while impressive, does not fully compensate for the lack of recognition in the Best Actress category. This year, there’s a chance for a tenth win, but Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor may split the vote. Additionally, Taylor’s character fades from “One Battle After Another” after a pivotal scene. Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleeas may also divide votes from “Sentimental Value.” Ultimately, this award could go to Amy Madigan, who has made a notable return to the Oscars after 40 years, thanks to her memorable role in “Weapons.”
Best Director
“Oppenheimer” felt like a crowning achievement for Christopher Nolan, while “One Battle After Another” appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s moment to finally secure the Oscar he has long deserved. Ryan Coogler presents the only significant challenge to Anderson, as he has demonstrated remarkable consistency throughout his five feature films. It’s amusing to consider whether Benny Safdie will be feeling left out as his brother Josh receives his first Oscar nomination.
Best Casting
In a refreshing twist, a new category has emerged this year after more than two decades. This raises questions about the criteria voters will use to make their decisions. Will “Marty Supreme” win for its innovative casting of nonprofessional actors? Could “Hamnet” be recognized for its two lead performances? Or will “Sinners” take the trophy for its exceptional ensemble? If “One Battle After Another” doesn’t secure Best Picture, could this category serve as a consolation prize? The outcome will surely provide insights into the Academy’s evolving priorities.
Best Original Screenplay
Could “Sentimental Value” clinch the win here as its main accolade? The writers’ branch has shown a willingness to acknowledge scripts not primarily in English, which could favor “It Was Just an Accident,” especially given the co-writer Mehdi Mahmoudian’s recent imprisonment in Iran due to his involvement with the film. The American nominees lack a similar narrative, which might open the door for a foreign-language win. Despite the high caliber of nominees, several deserving scripts, including those by Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”), Celine Song (“Materialists”), and Drew Hancock (“Companion”), have been overlooked.
Best Adapted Screenplay
A fun fact: Paul Thomas Anderson initially aimed for a faithful adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” but shifted to a contemporary setting with a more diverse cast. Thus, “One Battle After Another” stands as the frontrunner in this category, although I would love to see “Bugonia” pull off an upset. My appreciation for the classics might be showing, but neither script feels as groundbreaking as Nia DaCosta’s adaptation of “Hedda,” which brings Henrik Ibsen’s work into contemporary relevance.
Best Cinematography
To date, no woman has ever secured a win in this category, and Autumn Durald Arkapaw deserves to be the first for her exceptional work on “Sinners.” However, the branch may opt for the stunning natural landscapes captured in “Train Dreams.” Adolpho Veloso’s cinematography is visually captivating, but I would be disappointed if it triumphed. I personally found Mauro Herce’s work in “Sirāt” and Claudio Miranda’s race photography in “F1: The Movie” to be superior to the nominees. Each year, there seems to be a poorly received film with outstanding cinematography, and this year, I nominate Jeff Cronenweth’s work for “Tron: Ares.”
Best Editing
It’s gratifying to see Stephen Mirrione’s editing for “F1: The Movie” recognized, although it will likely lose to Andy Jurgensen’s editing in “One Battle After Another,” which is prominently featured throughout the film. I have no complaints about the other nominees, but the editing branch should have included Sofia Subercaseaux’s work on “The Testament of Ann Lee.”
Best Production Design
This category has bafflingly overlooked several deserving projects. While “Sinners” maximizes its single-location setting and “Frankenstein” boasts stunning visuals, my list of better nominees is extensive. For instance, Adam Stockhausen’s meticulous designs for “The Phoenician Scheme” or Klaudia Klimka’s interiors for “The Ugly Stepsister” deserved acknowledgment, even though the latter received a nomination for Best Makeup. Fiona Crombie’s work on “Hamnet” was impressive, particularly in “Mickey 17.” The omission of Jørgen Stangebye Larsen’s remarkable work on the family home in “Sentimental Value” is particularly perplexing, given its centrality to the story.
Best Costume Design
Are we surprised that “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is eligible in this category? It is, as even pixelated costumes require design. Deborah L. Scott’s Na’vi outfits will likely face off against Ruth E. Carter’s Depression-era costumes from “Sinners.” I expected Paul Tazewell’s designs for “Wicked: For Good” to be nominated, as well as Arjun Bhasin’s costumes from “A Big Bold Beautiful Journey,” despite the film’s lackluster reception. Susie Coulthard’s Renaissance-style costumes for “100 Nights of Hero” also deserved a look.
Best International Feature
This category is just as unpredictable as the Best Actor race. Could Donald Trump’s controversial military actions in Iran give “It Was Just an Accident” an edge? This French submission is set in Iran. Or will this competition boil down to Best Picture nominees “Sentimental Value” from Norway and “The Secret Agent
