New polling data from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project has revealed a tight race for key Democratic candidates in statewide elections, showcasing their slim leads over Republican opponents. This marks the first major survey to highlight these dynamics.
The poll indicates that state Representative James Talarico, the Democratic contender for the U.S. Senate, is ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a margin of 50% to 47%. Talarico’s support is notably strong among Latino and female voters, as well as those living in urban and suburban areas, while Paxton finds favor primarily among male and rural constituents.
In the gubernatorial race, Governor Greg Abbott faces an unusual challenge from Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, who holds a narrow one-point lead, effectively putting the race in a dead heat. Hinojosa’s backing is robust among Latino, female, and urban voters, although she trails in suburban and rural regions, as well as among male voters.
The poll also shows Democratic Representative Vikki Goodwin leading four-term incumbent Dan Patrick in the lieutenant governor race, with a score of 49% to 46%. Additionally, several other statewide contests are tightly contested, including state Senator Nathan Johnson, a Democrat from Dallas, ahead of Republican Mays Middleton for attorney general, while Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt for Comptroller of Public Accounts. Meanwhile, Democrat Jon Rosenthal is leading Republican Bo French for the position of Railroad Commissioner.
Despite these narrow leads for Democratic candidates, the poll indicates that generic Republican candidates for Congress and the Texas Legislature are ahead of their Democratic counterparts among registered voters. This finding emerges from a broader survey of 1,200 registered voters across the state.
The UT/Texas Politics Project attributes the competitive nature of this year’s elections to heightened enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 72% expressing that they are either “extremely” or “very enthusiastic” about participating in the midterms. This enthusiasm is notably higher by 10 percentage points compared to Republican voters surveyed.
Conversely, a recent Marist poll has shown Republicans gaining traction in races where they previously appeared to be trailing. This survey found Talarico and Paxton separated by only two points, with Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters. In the race for governor, Abbott now leads Hinojosa with 49% to 45%, marking a significant seven-point shift in the incumbent’s favor since September.
Both polls reveal a decline in President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Texas, with the Marist survey indicating that 54% of likely voters disapprove of his performance. Similarly, the UT/Texas Politics Project has recorded disapproval among voters for Trump’s handling of various issues for the third consecutive poll.
