Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s surprising victory over a prominent MAGA figure in a historically Republican Texas Senate district can be partially attributed to a notable shift among Latino voters towards the Democratic Party. Recent voting data highlights this trend.
In Senate District 9, precincts with a majority Hispanic population saw an average swing of 34 percentage points in favor of Rehmet compared to the Democratic nominee’s performance in the 2022 election. VoteHub’s analysis estimates that Rehmet secured approximately 79% of the Hispanic vote, marking a 26-point increase from the 53% that supported Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, representing the most significant shift among any racial demographic in the district.
This shift culminated in a decisive 14-point victory for Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and union leader, over Republican activist Leigh Wambsganss in the recent special election runoff. However, Rehmet’s win may be short-lived, as this election was to fulfill the remainder of Kelly Hancock’s term, who vacated the Senate seat to assume the role of Texas’ acting comptroller. Rehmet and Wambsganss are set to face off again in November.
The January election has attracted national interest, particularly due to Rehmet’s substantial margin in a district that Hancock, a Republican, won by 20 points in 2022, following Trump’s comparable victory in the same area. While it is still early to draw conclusions about the implications for the upcoming midterm elections, the results serve as a crucial reminder of the growing influence of the Latino vote in Texas and the potential risks for Republicans if they continue to lose support among this demographic.
In the aftermath of Trump’s 2024 success, which saw him garner 55% of the Latino vote in Texas, attention had largely focused on the traditionally Democratic, heavily Latino counties along the border. Trump claimed victory in 14 of the 18 Texas counties located within 20 miles of the border, including all four in the Rio Grande Valley. Yet, less emphasis has been placed on the advancements made by Trump and the Texas GOP with Latino voters in the state’s most populous metropolitan areas. The special election in Senate District 9, which includes roughly half of Fort Worth and its surrounding suburbs, complicates the narrative, hinting at a possible retreat toward Democratic alignment among Latino voters.
An analysis of precinct-level results reveals that Rehmet achieved an average victory margin of 59 percentage points in precincts where over 60% of the population is Hispanic. In contrast, the Democratic nominee in 2022, Gwenn Burud, won those same precincts by a much narrower 26-point margin.
Hispanic Texans represent just over 20% of eligible voters in Senate District 9, based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Overall, approximately 83% of the precincts in the district—301 out of 364—shifted to Democratic support from the 2022 general election to the recent runoff. Although such shifts can be anticipated to some extent during midterm elections, this level of change has surprised political analysts.
In 40 precincts, Democrats experienced gains exceeding 50 percentage points, with 15 of those precincts being majority Hispanic. The apparent decline in Latino support for the GOP has invigorated Democratic leaders in Texas and Washington, at least for the time being.
In the wake of the runoff, Texas Democratic leaders are targeting traditionally Republican congressional districts stretching from the Texas-Mexico border to major urban centers, including newly drawn districts in Houston and San Antonio that boast substantial Hispanic populations. “We are leaving no stone unturned in this election,” stated Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder during a recent press call. “Whether you were in Dumas or you were in Dallas, you deserve investment from our party, and we intend to show up and fight back.”
