The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is set to commence on June 1, and while meteorologists anticipate a below-average number of storms this year, residents in Houston are being urged to remain vigilant and prepared.
According to the seasonal outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the predictions of fewer storms are influenced by developing El Niño conditions and cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in certain areas of the tropical Atlantic.
However, experts warn that these forecasts focus on overall activity levels and do not indicate where storms might eventually make landfall. Cameron Batiste, the lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service, emphasized the importance of preparation, stating, “It only takes one storm. It could be the only storm of the entire season, but if it makes landfall in Houston, that makes it an active season here.”
Batiste highlighted a common misconception that arises when people hear forecasts predicting fewer storms; many mistakenly believe this means there is little to no risk. “The biggest misconception is that people hear fewer and that makes them think that is zero, which is definitely not the case,” he explained.
Emergency management officials advise residents to review their evacuation plans, assemble emergency supplies, and ensure they have adequate food, water, and medications to last several days in the event a storm threatens the Gulf Coast. Essential items for preparedness kits should include bottled water, batteries, flashlights, first-aid supplies, and important documents.
Historically, Hurricane Alicia serves as a poignant reminder of why seasonal forecasts can be misleading. In 1983, the Atlantic hurricane season recorded only four named storms, marking it as one of the quietest seasons ever. Nevertheless, Alicia intensified into a major hurricane before making landfall near Galveston in August, causing extensive damage throughout Southeast Texas and remaining one of the most significant hurricanes in Houston’s history.
As the hurricane season approaches, experts recommend that Houstonians take several proactive steps: assess their flood and evacuation risks, build or update an emergency supply kit, review evacuation routes, check their insurance coverage, and secure outdoor items that could become hazardous during high winds. Batiste reiterated that early preparation is crucial, allowing residents to avoid the chaos of last-minute preparations if a storm threatens Southeast Texas later in the season. “The forecast is for fewer storms,” he said. “But fewer doesn’t mean none.”
