A recent poll indicates that U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett from Dallas holds a significant lead over Austin’s State Representative James Talarico as the Texas Senate Democratic primary approaches its conclusion. The survey, conducted between February 2 and February 16, reveals that Crockett has captured 56% of voter support, compared to Talarico’s 44%. This poll, executed by the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project, included a sample of 369 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Crockett’s advantage is particularly pronounced among Black voters, where she commands an impressive 87% support. Additionally, she leads among senior citizens and those without a college degree. In contrast, Talarico holds a narrow lead among white voters, winning them by a mere 6 percentage points, while the Hispanic voter demographic appears nearly evenly split, with Crockett ahead by 4 points.
This latest poll follows a previous survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, which found Crockett ahead of Talarico by 8 points.
On the Republican front, the UT poll shows a tight race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn, neither of whom has achieved the necessary majority to avoid a runoff. Paxton leads with 36% of the vote, closely followed by Cornyn at 34%. Houston U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt trails in third place with 26% support. The Republican primary poll surveyed 350 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 points.
In total, the poll reached 1,300 registered voters, with an oversampling of verified primary voters, defined as those who have consistently participated in the last three primaries and indicated they would vote in the upcoming primaries.
Conducted just before the start of early voting, the poll reveals that the U.S. Senate candidates are relatively well-known among voters, particularly when compared to other individuals running in statewide contests. Less than 20% of voters expressed a lack of familiarity or opinion regarding Cornyn, Crockett, and Paxton, whereas approximately one-third reported the same for Hunt and Talarico.
Favorability ratings for Cornyn and Paxton were notably negative, showing margins of 8 and 10 points, respectively, while Hunt maintained a slightly positive rating. Conversely, both Crockett and Talarico enjoyed favorable ratings, with net favorabilities of 10 and 18 points, respectively.
The poll also indicated that U.S. Representative Chip Roy from Austin and State Senator Mayes Middleton from Galveston are likely to proceed to a runoff in the open Republican primary to replace Paxton as attorney general. Roy is currently leading with 40%, followed closely by Middleton at 38%, which falls within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 points. State Senator Joan Huffman from Houston and former Deputy Attorney General Aaron Reitz are trailing significantly at 9% and 5%, respectively. Notably, Paxton has endorsed Reitz in this primary.
Among these candidates, only Roy has garnered recognition from over 50% of voters.
In the Democratic primary, former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski is leading Dallas State Senator Nathan Johnson with 52% to 28%, while attorney and former FBI agent Tony Box is lagging behind at 10%.
In gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial races, incumbent Republicans Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick maintain substantial leads over lesser-known challengers. On the Democratic side, gubernatorial candidate State Representative Gina Hinojosa and lieutenant governor candidate State Representative Vikki Goodwin are both polling well above the 50% threshold necessary for an outright victory.
The poll also yielded promising news for Democratic candidates in Texas’ congressional races, revealing a tie at 42% each between Republicans and Democrats on the generic ballot. Among Hispanic voters, Democrats are holding a 50% to 31% advantage.
