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With just two weeks remaining before Election Day, Governor Greg Abbott made a stop at a barbecue restaurant in Harris County to galvanize voters and outline his two primary objectives for next year’s midterm elections. His first goal is to secure his own re-election, aiming for a fourth term in the governor’s mansion.
His second aim is to turn Harris County red.
“I have $90 million in my campaign fund, and I plan to invest a significant portion of it in Harris County, Texas, to ensure we mobilize voters who participated in the presidential election and engage those who have never voted before,” Abbott stated. “Wi
ing Harris County is crucial, and we need to make it a deep shade of red.”
This county, home to one in six Texans, is pivotal for both political parties’ statewide aspirations. It has leaned Democratic for about ten years after a prior period of being a competitive battleground that supported George W. Bush in 2004, Barack Obama in 2008, and just narrowly in 2012, while still electing popular Republicans to local offices.
The rise of President Donald Trump marked a significant shift in this dynamic.
During Trump’s presidency, Democrats dominated Harris County in the 2018 midterms, ousting numerous Republican incumbents, including County Judge Ed Emmett, who was defeated by Lina Hidalgo, a 27-year-old newcomer who had never attended a commissioners court meeting prior to her election.
Since then, Harris County, anchored by Houston, has consistently posed a challenge to the Republican-dominated Texas state government, which has maintained control for three decades. Hidalgo has frequently clashed with state leaders on issues ranging from the county’s COVID-19 response to electoral strategies, often implementing i
ovative voting methods that have drawn criticism and scrutiny from state officials.
As Hidalgo, who has a
ounced she will not seek re-election, prepares to exit, Republicans are eager to mark the conclusion of the Democratic era she represents.
“We have more than enough voters in Harris County to achieve victory,” remarked Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief strategist, in a recent interview. While he tempered expectations by stating that a total defeat is unlikely, he is optimistic about gaining ground.
With the upcoming election, Republicans are intensifying their efforts, finding encouragement in previous contests where they regained some ground lost in 2018 and came within two points of unseating Hidalgo in 2022. Democrats, in turn, seem to be taking this challenge seriously, buoyed by recent national victories.
“Mathematically and practically, Harris County is the battleground,” stated Mike Doyle, chair of the county’s Democratic Party.
Doyle expressed confidence following the recent elections, highlighting the success of progressive candidates in the Cypress Fairbanks ISD races, who triumphed over Republicans associated with Abbott. He also noted the Democrats’ broader victories across the country.
Nonetheless, he remains cautious and desires additional resources to counteract the GOP’s efforts.
“Their focus on Harris County is purposeful,” Doyle noted. “The state and national party have yet to fully grasp the situation as well as the Republicans do, and this may serve as a wake-up call.”
Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston, pointed out that the governor’s substantial financial resources will significantly influence the outcome of any race he targets.
“These factors will play a crucial role in determining whether Republicans can successfully flip Harris County,” Cortina commented, adding that Trump’s policies will also shape voter sentiment.
Among those vying to succeed Hidalgo are familiar names to Houston residents, though Abbott has not yet endorsed any candidates. Former Houston Mayor A
ise Parker and former Councilwoman Letitia Plummer are competing for the Democratic nomination. The Republican side boasts a crowded field with five candidates jostling for their party’s nomination, including Marty Lancton, a firefighter and union leader who commenced his campaign with a robust list of endorsements.
Steve Radack, a former Republican County Commissioner who retired in 2019, is also seeking a return to office. He emphasized the need for the county to prioritize infrastructure and efficient public spending, criticizing what he perceives as waste, including physical mailings that go unread despite increased tax rates.
“A change is necessary,” Radack asserted.
Two of the court’s three Democratic members will be on the ballot next year, including Precinct 4 Commissioner Lesley Briones, who may face Radack if both secure their respective nominations.
As they look ahead to 2026, the governor’s campaign has pinpointed Republicans in the county and the state who either seldom vote or do not vote at all, with plans to engage these individuals through door-to-door outreach.
Carney revealed that the campaign intends to have a field director in each of the 24 Texas House districts within the county, irrespective of their political leanings, deploying hundreds of workers to drive voter turnout for both the primary and general elections.
One source of encouragement for the GOP came last year when nine out of ten GOP-backed judicial candidates secured victory in the county. Carney explained that the GOP’s failure to achieve a complete sweep stemmed from not fielding a tenth candidate, a critical element for local success. He emphasized the importance of strong candidates in securing wins, stating, “We are not a silver bullet.”
Furthermore, Carney believes residents are frustrated with their taxes and public safety issues, which can be leveraged against Democrats based on their voting records.
“It’s a straightforward formula,” Carney remarked. “It’s a perfect storm, if you will.”
Amidst this political landscape, Harris County GOP Chair Cindy Siegel remains hopeful, albeit slightly dampened by the recent Democratic victories. She acknowledged the complexities of defending a struggling economy with a Republican in the White House but emphasized the party’s commitment to focusing on local issues that elected officials can control.
“We believe there is an opportunity,” Siegel stated. “This will be a fiercely contested race.”
Disclosure: The University of Houston has provided financial support to the Tribune, a nonprofit and nonpartisan news organization funded in part by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters have no influence over the Tribune’s journalism. A complete list of supporters is available on request.
Correction, Nov. 21, 2025, 1:56 p.m. Central: A previous version of this story incorrectly spelled the name of Harris County Commissioner Lesley Briones and misidentified her precinct. She represents Precinct 4.
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Tagged: 2026 elections, Greg Abbott, Houston Alejandro Serrano Politics Reporter alejandro.serrano@texastribune.org x Alejandro Serrano covers Texas politics and government, concentrating on immigration and education issues. Since joining the Tribune, he has played a role in investigating the 2022 Uvalde school shooting and has lived…
