Following the 2022 primaries, Republican enthusiasm surged from Austin to Washington, D.C., as GOP turnout in the Rio Grande Valley exceeded previous midterm elections by more than double. This increase was attributed to years of strategic outreach to candidates and Hispanic voters in South Texas.
Fast forward four years, and Democrats are now experiencing a similar wave of enthusiasm along the border. During the primary elections held on March 3, Texas Democrats significantly boosted their turnout in the four counties of the Rio Grande Valley—Cameron, Starr, Hidalgo, and Willacy—achieving a turnout rate that surpassed not only the 2024 primaries but also the elections of 2018 and 2020, when Donald Trump was on the ballot.
This uptick has sparked optimism among Texas Democrats, who are eager to secure a statewide victory for the first time in over 30 years. They are banking on a backlash against the president’s policies to fuel their success across various races.
The momentum in the Valley could potentially protect two incumbent Democratic congressmen whose districts have been redrawn to favor Republican candidates. Additionally, it might help the state’s minority party gain a third congressional district and possibly secure one or two statehouse districts.
“Our participation is becoming a defining factor in elections across the state,” remarked state Sen. César Blanco, a board member of an organization dedicated to the Latino voter bloc. “We are a force to be reckoned with, and this midterm election demonstrates that.”
If the strong Democratic primary turnout translates into significant electoral gains, it could mark a dramatic shift from 2024, when Latino voters largely supported Trump, allowing him to nearly sweep all border counties in a historic performance. This shift may indicate that the Latino electorate in Texas is no longer firmly aligned with either party but is now an independent demographic open to persuasion.
However, Republicans also witnessed an increase in their voter turnout in the region, although it was overshadowed by the Democratic surge. Party leaders caution that primary elections do not always predict outcomes for the general election, particularly in light of the highly competitive race for the U.S. Senate that drew significant attention.
Despite this, party leaders and analysts view the high turnout as a positive indicator for Democrats. They recently flipped a Texas Senate seat in North Texas during a special election in late January and are closely monitoring local races across the state for insights.
“This is just the official rebuke of the Trump administration and the Republican party,” stated Richard Gonzales, chair of the Hidalgo County Democratic Party, which saw participation soar to 61,480 voters—an increase of approximately 114% from 2024.
Gonzales believes the party’s momentum will endure, fueled by the challenges facing local communities, including a struggling economy exacerbated by conflicts abroad and aggressive ICE enforcement actions, which recently led to the detention of a family that included two award-winning high school mariachi students, inciting public outrage.
“I could just allow the Republicans to continue making things worse,” Gonzales expressed. “We’ve seen that they’re really good at doing that.”
Republicans, on the other hand, remain confident about the upcoming elections. “I’m not concerned at all,” asserted Gov. Greg Abbott when addressing reporters. “What happened in the primaries was party versus party candidates.”
Wayne Hamilton, a seasoned GOP strategist who has been recruiting Republican candidates in South Texas for years, attributed the high turnout to the competitive U.S. Senate Democratic primary between state Rep. James Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
The fierce competition in the Valley is perhaps best exemplified by the race for the 15th Congressional District. GOP U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who won the seat in 2022, is currently facing a challenge from Tejano music icon Bobby Pulido.
In a recent interview, Pulido noted that voters have expressed concerns about the economy and its stagnation during Trump’s presidency. He highlighted the impact of ICE raids, which are depleting workforces in the region.
“When the American dream is interrupted, whether that be by ICE raids or workforce shortages, people will definitely vote you out,” Pulido remarked. “Hispanics are not loyal to a party; they are more loyal to those who are willing to improve their lives.”
Following the state’s congressional map redistricting last year, which was orchestrated to maximize Republican advantages, Democrats will now defend two additional congressional seats in the Valley. U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Laredo will face off against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat who won his GOP primary with presidential endorsement. Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez will confront former federal prosecutor Eric Flores, as he seeks to retain his district, which was redrawn to favor the president by 10% instead of 4% in 2024.
The Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Texas House seat in the Valley may lie in House District 37, which Republican Janie Lopez won in 2022. While Trump carried the district by 11 points, the 2024 Senate race ended with a narrow 1.9-point victory for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Oziel Ochoa Jr. and Esmeralda Cantu-Castle have advanced to a runoff for the Democratic nomination for HD-37. Both candidates expressed optimism about the potential for Talarico to lead the ticket in flipping their district and others throughout the state, as the party aims to gain 14 seats to take control of the lower chamber.
“I really think this is our chance,” Ochoa Jr. stated.
The Texas Majority PAC, a group backed by George Soros and led by alumni of Beto O’Rourke’s 2022 gubernatorial campaign, plans to invest $3 million in the Valley for the congressional and statehouse races, according to executive director Katherine Fischer.
While cautious about overinterpreting primary turnout, Fischer indicated that all signs point to a stronger Democratic performance in November than in 2024, when the Republican party made significant inroads with Latino voters. This could have far-reaching implications.
“We need to see much better performance among Latino voters than we have seen—not just in ’24 but in the last few cycles,” Fischer emphasized. “There’s just no pathway for Democrats to win statewide without substantial support from Latino voters across Texas.”
