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In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett holds an 8-point lead over State Representative James Talarico, as revealed by a poll released on Friday.
The statewide poll, conducted by Texas Southern University from Tuesday to Thursday, indicates that 51% of likely Democratic voters favor Crockett in the upcoming March primary, while 43% support Talarico, leaving 6% undecided.
This poll, which surveyed 1,600 likely voters in the Democratic primary, is the first public assessment since Crockett officially entered the race and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred withdrew on the candidate filing deadline. Crockett stated that her decision to run stemmed from polling suggesting she could win the general election in November, regardless of the Republican nominee, though she has not disclosed those specific figures.
The Dallas congresswoman has gained national recognition as a passionate and articulate opponent of Republican policies, asserting that she is the ideal candidate to engage Texans who lean Democratic but typically do not participate in elections. In contrast, Talarico, a progressive and aspiring Presbyterian minister, has concentrated his efforts on creating a broader coalition that includes infrequent voters as well as moderate or right-leaning Texans.
The Texas Southern poll highlights that Crockett’s advantage is largely supported by strong backing from Black voters, with 89% indicating their intent to vote for her, while only 8% support Talarico. Notably, nearly half of Black voters—47%—expressed uncertainty about Talarico.
Talarico has managed to keep the race competitive by securing greater support among white and Latino voters, where he leads Crockett by double digits. Additionally, he holds a 29-point advantage among voters aged 18 to 34, while Crockett leads by 25 points among those over 55.
Crockett enjoys near-universal name recognition, with 94% of likely primary voters aware of her, compared to Talarico’s 79% recognition rate.
A spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign suggested that the poll reflects a favorable position for the Austin Democrat, noting, “This is a single-digit race before any money has been spent. Polling consistently shows that as more people become familiar with James, their support grows. As voters hear his commitment to challenging wealthy donors and their political puppets, he will earn their backing and ultimately prevail.”
Conversely, Crockett’s campaign contended that the survey underscores her strong potential to galvanize voters who have historically been overlooked. A spokesperson stated, “Mobilizing these voters to express their opinions is essential for any Democrat aiming for victory in Texas. I am grateful for the diverse support I have received and will continue to expand this coalition, bringing more people into the democratic process and ensuring every voice is uplifted.”
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Tagged: 2026 elections, James Talarico, Jasmine Felicia Crockett.
Kayla Guo, Politics Reporter. Kayla Guo covers state politics and government. Before joining the Tribune, she reported on Congress for The New York Times as a reporting fellow based in Washington, D.C. Kayla has also covered transportation issues.
