In a significant move ahead of the upcoming elections, the House Majority PAC, a leading super PAC for House Democrats, is allocating over $22 million for advertising in Texas, marking a substantial increase from their previous efforts in 2024. This strategic investment suggests that the party is optimistic about seizing opportunities in five congressional districts, despite the recent redistricting that benefited the Republican Party.
The funding will focus on safeguarding two vulnerable Democratic seats in South Texas, held by Representatives Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, while also aiming to capture three Republican-held districts. Notably, all five districts have a majority Hispanic population, reflecting Democrats’ belief that support among Hispanic voters for the GOP is declining after the Republicans made significant gains in border communities two years ago.
The targeted Republican districts include the 15th Congressional District, represented by Monica De La Cruz in Edinburg; the 23rd Congressional District, formerly held by Tony Gonzales; and the newly drawn 35th Congressional District, which encompasses parts of San Antonio and its surrounding areas.
In response, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the primary super PAC for House Republicans, is committing $13.9 million across three media markets to defend Cuellar and Gonzalez’s seats, which are viewed as some of the party’s most promising competitive opportunities for the upcoming election, although they present greater challenges in a midterm election expected to favor Democrats.
In contrast to the House Majority PAC’s budget of $22.2 million for Texas, their initial ad spending in the region for 2024 was only $2.3 million. Of the current total, $4.8 million is allocated specifically for Spanish-language advertisements.
Mike Smith, the President of House Majority PAC, emphasized the significance of their advertising strategy, stating, “HMP’s historic television and digital ad reservations reflect that Democrats are firmly on offense heading into November.” He expressed confidence that Democrats would regain control of the House and elect Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker.
While the Congressional Leadership Fund’s initial spending is not as large as HMP’s, it still signifies a considerable escalation from previous cycles, underscoring the enhanced competitiveness of the Cuellar and Gonzalez seats following redistricting. Last cycle, the organization invested $1.9 million solely in the Harlingen media market.
CLF President Chris Winkelman remarked on their fundraising success, stating, “This initial reserve reflects the reality that this cycle, again, will be fought on a narrow map. Republicans hold the terrain, and it’s a tall order for Democrats to break through our strong, battle-tested incumbents.”
The ad reservations from both HMP and CLF represent preliminary outlines of their spending priorities, which may be adjusted as each party refines its House strategy in the run-up to the elections.
House Majority PAC is focusing its advertising efforts in four media markets, including San Antonio, which covers parts of the 15th, 23rd, and 35th Congressional Districts. Notably, the 23rd District is particularly significant, as Gonzalez won reelection in 2024 by a 24-point margin, and HMP has not invested in the district since 2020, when it was considered a swing seat before being redistricted to favor Republicans.
In March, Gonzalez announced he would not seek reelection following a scandal involving an employee and subsequently resigned. The race for his vacant seat is now between GOP nominee Brandon Herrera, known for his conservative stance and social media presence, and Democratic newcomer Katy Padilla Stout.
A recent poll commissioned by HMP shows a tight race, with Herrera leading by a mere two points, providing Democrats with a glimmer of hope despite Republican assertions that the district remains solidly red.
In the newly reconfigured 35th District, currently represented by Democrat Greg Casar, Democrats are expressing optimism that they can counteract the effects of the redistricting, which shifted the district to one that Trump won by 10 points in 2024. This district was among five Democratic-held areas specifically targeted by Texas Republicans during the redistricting process.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has predicted that the new map will backfire on Republicans, estimating that they will only secure two or three of the five targeted seats.
In the race for the 35th District, national Democrats are rallying behind Johnny Garcia, a deputy sheriff in Bexar County, who is facing a runoff against a more progressive contender, Maureen Galindo. The Republican primary is also headed for a runoff between state Representative John Lujan and Carlos De La Cruz, the Trump-endorsed sibling of Monica De La Cruz.
The Congressional Leadership Fund has not allocated any of its initial $153 million ad budget to defend Republican-held seats in San Antonio or the new 35th District, opting instead to focus on securing the two most challenging seats to flip.
House Majority PAC is directing a significant portion of its Texas funding—$13 million—toward the Harlingen media market, where Democrats are defending two seats and seeking to capture De La Cruz’s seat. This market encompasses key South Texas cities such as Brownsville, McAllen, and Weslaco.
Prior to redistricting, Democrats had already been targeting De La Cruz, who won her race by a 14-point margin in 2024. Under the new district lines, Trump would have won by 17 points.
Meanwhile, CLF has reserved $10.3 million for the Harlingen media market, which includes spending targeted at Spanish-speaking voters. Currently, the Republican group is focused on offensive strategies in South Texas, primarily aiming to flip the seats held by Cuellar and Gonzalez rather than defending De La Cruz.
House Majority PAC is also preparing to support Cuellar and Gonzalez, whose districts were altered by Republicans to make their reelections more challenging. Initial ad reservations include $682,500 for Laredo, represented by Cuellar, and $2.35 million for Corpus Christi, which has been redesigned to complicate Gonzalez’s path to reelection.
CLF’s spending in Laredo exceeds that of HMP, while their investment in Corpus Christi is lower. The Republican group has set aside $2 million for Cuellar’s district in Laredo and $1.6 million for Gonzalez’s district in Corpus Christi, with both amounts featuring Spanish-language advertisements.
In their new configurations, both Cuellar and Gonzalez’s districts were won by Trump by 10 points in 2024. Nevertheless, both representatives have a history of outperforming their party during elections, successfully retaining their seats even as Trump dominated in their districts.
Cuellar is set to face Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, while Gonzalez will compete against former federal prosecutor Eric Flores.
The ad reservations made by HMP fulfill a commitment to raise and allocate at least $20 million for the Lone Star Fund, established in response to Republican-led redistricting efforts. HMP had pledged to recruit and finance campaigns aimed at flipping Republican-held seats in the newly gerrymandered districts.
CLF is also investing $1.8 million in the El Paso media market, although these ads are aimed at New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Democrat Gabe Vasquez, rather than any Texas seats.
