Recent polling indicates that the upcoming U.S. Senate race in Texas could be poised for runoff elections in both the Republican and Democratic primaries. This forecast stems from data gathered by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston.
Conducted at the end of January, the poll reveals that a significant portion of Republican voters favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, while most Democratic voters are leaning towards U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. However, no candidate has garnered sufficient support to avoid a runoff.
The poll shows that 47% of likely Democratic voters plan to support Crockett, with 39% backing State Representative James Talarico and only 2% for Ahmad Hassan. Additionally, 12% of respondents remain undecided. Notably, a majority of Democratic voters expressed familiarity with both Crockett and Talarico, leading to favorable ratings of 84% and 79%, respectively.
On the Republican side, 38% of likely voters indicate their intention to back Paxton, followed by 31% for incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn and 17% for U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. Other candidates collectively received 2% of the vote, while 12% remained undecided. Favorability ratings are also strong among Republican voters, with Paxton at 72%, Hunt at 70%, and Cornyn at 61%.
Furthermore, the poll highlights that 55% of Republican primary voters would be more likely to support a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
In Texas, the primary elections require that a candidate secures a majority—over 50% of the votes—to advance directly to the general election. This stipulation often results in runoff elections when multiple candidates are in contention. The state’s open primaries allow voters to participate in either party’s primary, although they can only vote in one, which determines their eligibility for the runoff.
