If the Houston Texans achieve anything noteworthy in the remainder of the season, such as making the playoffs and securing a few victories, the three-game stretch during which C.J. Stroud was sidelined due to a concussion and Davis Mills stepped in to lead the team to a 3-0 record will be viewed as even more remarkable than it seems at present.
Mills completed his brief tenure as a starter with a flawless record, amassing nearly as many wins in just 11 days as he had over two seasons in 2021 and 2022. This impressive performance is precisely why Texans General Manager Nick Caserio has granted Mills two contract extensions. Given the circumstances, those three games may also prompt numerous inquiries to Caserio from rival GMs seeking a bridge starter at the quarterback position.
However, that discussion can be saved for the offseason, as C.J. Stroud is set to return to the lineup this weekend. The Texans’ defense is currently performing at an exceptional level, placing significant pressure on Stroud to lead an offense that only needs to be “slightly above average” to secure enough victories for a postseason berth.
This week, the Texans will travel to Indianapolis to take on the division-leading Colts. A win in Indianapolis would reignite discussions about the Texans claiming their third consecutive division title. Conversely, a loss would mean the Texans would likely need to win every remaining game to have a shot at the playoffs.
Here are four key points to monitor in Indianapolis on Sunday:
4. Welcome back, C.J. Stroud
The return of Stroud brings intrigue regarding how the offense will perform under his leadership. Before his concussion, Stroud demonstrated exceptional skill against San Francisco and showed promise against Denver until his exit from that game. If he can recapture that form, it could lead to a successful outing on Sunday. Stroud holds a 2-0 record at Lucas Oil Stadium and is 9-4 in AFC South matchups since entering the NFL in 2023. This marks the beginning of a critical six-game stretch that could impact Stroud’s future contracts.
3. Nico versus Sauce
In a bold move just before the NFL’s trade deadline, the Colts acquired former All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets in exchange for two first-round picks. This high-stakes decision has yielded mixed results so far. Among the many pivotal matchups in this game, none is more significant than Gardner facing off against the Texans’ leading wide receiver, Nico Collins. Collins has gained momentum after a slow start and now has the opportunity to influence the ongoing debate regarding who is the superior cornerback between Gardner and Collins’ teammate, Derek Stingley Jr.
2. Jonathan Taylor, the head of the snake
To neutralize the Colts’ offensive effectiveness, the primary objective must be to contain running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor currently leads the league in rushing with 1,197 yards. However, in last week’s game against the Chiefs, he was limited to just 58 yards on 16 carries, contributing to a sluggish performance in the fourth quarter and overtime. The Texans have proven capable of stifling the opposing team’s star running back, as evidenced by their performances this season. Stopping Taylor will be crucial because…
The “old” Daniel Jones appears to be resurfacing, and without a viable running game, the Colts cannot effectively utilize play action. Consequently, Jones becomes vulnerable to the sack duo of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. In addition to the general decline of Jones and the offense, which excelled in the first half of the season, Jones is also managing a fibula injury that hampers his ability to run and evade pressure. The rest of the division has been anticipating the New York Giants version of Jones for months, and now he seems to have arrived.
SPREAD: Texans +4.5
PREDICTION: Texans 23, Colts 22
SEASON RECORD: 5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
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