As Texas approaches Election Day, recent polls indicate a tight race for the U.S. Senate seat between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with both candidates within the margin of error. Paxton, the incumbent Attorney General with three terms under his belt, is facing Talarico, a state legislator from Austin. In the final weeks of the campaign, both candidates have been actively traveling across the state to rally their bases, sway undecided voters, and portray each other as unsuitable for the position.
The Texas Tribune has been closely following the midterm elections, highlighting the various demographics both candidates are targeting, including supporters of Senator John Cornyn who remain undecided, rural voters expressing dissatisfaction with data centers, Latino voters along the border, and suburban voters from the crucial Dallas-Fort Worth area. These voting blocks will significantly influence the outcome of the Senate race, and five key trends will be monitored as results come in on Tuesday.
Will Latino Voters Shift Back?
In South Texas, a region with a significant Hispanic population, there is speculation about whether Latino voters will revert to supporting Democrats. Two years ago, Republicans made major gains here, but recent polling suggests a potential shift back to the left. In 2024, Donald Trump was the first Republican presidential nominee in decades to win Cameron, Hidalgo, and Webb counties, which are major population centers along the border. However, the extent of any reversal remains uncertain.
In particular, Starr County, which is predominantly Latino, showed a dramatic 76-point swing toward Trump compared to 2016. Despite this, Talarico faces a formidable challenge in regaining the levels of support seen in 2016, when Hillary Clinton achieved 64% of the vote in Cameron County, 68% in Hidalgo County, and 73% in Webb County. Both parties acknowledge that Republicans have established a stronger presence in these areas in recent years, which may hinder Talarico’s efforts.
Early voting turnout in South Texas has been notably strong, surpassing the numbers seen in 2024, a presidential election year. This trend is promising for Talarico, as Latino voters, who make up over 30% of Texas’ eligible electorate, are increasingly participating in early voting. If Talarico can galvanize Latino voters—either through increased turnout among Latino Democrats or attracting those who previously supported Trump—he may see favorable results in majority-Latino counties like Bexar and El Paso.
Key Suburban Areas: Tarrant, Collin, and Denton Counties
Attention will also be focused on Tarrant County and the suburbs north of Dallas, which are crucial battlegrounds with rapidly growing populations. In 2024, these counties collectively represented nearly 16% of the statewide vote. Unlike neighboring Dallas County, which leans Democratic, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton counties are competitive for both parties. They voted for Trump by margins of 5, 11, and 13 percentage points, respectively, indicating a potential opportunity for Talarico.
Talarico’s success in these suburbs may depend on swaying disenchanted supporters of Cornyn, as well as securing strong turnout among Asian American voters, particularly in Collin County, where a significant portion of the population is Indian American. The response of these communities will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the Senate race.
Harris County’s Democratic Stronghold
For the last decade, Harris County has been a Democratic stronghold, but winning the county alone is insufficient for statewide success. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke captured approximately 58% of the vote in Harris, but no Democrat has matched that since. Talarico’s goal will be to surpass the 60% mark in Harris County to signal a stronger performance among the diverse electorate, particularly in Houston and its expanding suburbs.
For Paxton, keeping Talarico’s numbers below 60% is crucial, which will involve maintaining support among Latino voters and driving turnout in more conservative areas of the county. Early voting trends indicate a potential increase in turnout, with Harris County accounting for 14% of early voters and showing a higher turnout rate compared to previous elections.
The Rural Vote’s Impact on the GOP
Republicans have historically relied on Texas’ rural counties for substantial support, often securing 80% or more of the vote in these areas. However, growing discontent over issues like data centers and water access could affect turnout among rural voters. While voting for a Democrat may be unlikely for many, any significant drop in Republican turnout could give Talarico a chance to narrow Paxton’s margins in these regions.
On election night, attention will be paid to counties like Hale, Hood, Fisher, and Navarro, where Paxton will need to perform well to mirror Cruz’s previous successes. If Talarico can exceed the margins achieved by Colin Allred in rural areas, it could indicate a tighter race.
The Role of Third-Party Candidates
Voters dissatisfied with both candidates have another option in Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, who previously garnered around 2.4% of the vote in 2024. Polling suggests Brown may attract more support from independents and moderate Republicans than from Democrats. Should he receive a similar percentage this time, it could allow either Paxton or Talarico to win without achieving a majority.
Additionally, some conservative voters may choose to abstain from the Senate race while still supporting other Republican candidates, which could further complicate the dynamics of the election. The overall voter turnout could provide insights into how the electorate is responding to the candidates at the top of the ticket.
Linda Misenheimer, a 72-year-old El Paso resident who identifies as independent and leans conservative, expressed her frustration with both candidates. Having voted for Abbott but leaving the Senate selection blank, she stated that neither Talarico nor Paxton aligned with her values, illustrating the challenges both candidates face in winning over a divided electorate.
